If you bet with your heart instead of your head, the 132nd Kentucky Derby is an embarrassment of schmaltzy riches, a tear-jerker in the making at every turn.
When the annual Run for the Roses begins at 5:04 p.m. today before more than 150,000 bewitched, bedazzled and, in many cases, besotted fans at Churchill Downs, the full field of 20 thoroughbreds offers a plethora of sentimental favorites because of the people schooling them, riding them and paying for their oats.
There's Dan Hendricks, the paralyzed trainer who is saddling his first Derby horse in Brother Derek.
There's Michael Matz, another first-time trainer and former Olympic equestrian and fully certified American hero who helped rescue several passengers from the burning wreckage of a United Airlines jet that plowed into an Iowa cornfield in 1989. He is responsible for the unbeaten Barbaro.
There's Beverly Lewis, horse racing's doyenne who returns to Louisville alone, having lost her husband of 58 years to heart failure in February, before their colt Point Determined had revealed his Derby potential.
There's Lawyer Ron, named for the attorney charged with settling the estate of owner James T. Hines Jr., who also died in February, mysteriously drowning in his indoor swimming pool. Further, Lawyer Ron's trainer is the crusty Bob Holthus, 71, a man with heart problems who hasn't come close to winning in four starts.
And for Houstonians willing to forgive Bob McNair for his Texans having snubbed Vince Young and Reggie Bush, there's also Bob and John, McNair's first horse since Congaree in 2001 with a chance to take the first leg of the Triple Crown.
But each of these colts is a defensible pick intellectually, too, as is Sinister Minister, trained by Derby rookie Michael Trombetta.
The once-cocky boy wonder saddled his first winner at the age of 20 and then waited 20 more years to get here.
Bob Baffert's return to the forefront with three viable horses offers a different kind of compelling angle, considering how humbled he has been in his quest for a fourth Derby win since War Emblem gave him No. 3 in 2002.
The still-cocky Baffert calls Brother Derek "the real deal" but says any one of 10 horses — his three included, presumably — can win the race.
Of course, Giacomo's startling victory as a super long shot last spring would suggest all 20 starters must be taken seriously.
Trained by John Shirreffs, another long-thwarted Derby rookie, Giacomo broke from the gate at 50-1 en route to a $102.60 payday for a $2 wager.
"You've got to be on your game this week," Baffert said. "You can have a really good horse, but if he's not doing that well right now, it's not going to do you any good (today)."
Setting the pace
With several super-quick colts in the mix — Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, Sweetnorthernsaint and Sinister Minister conspicuous among them — the pace figures to be furious in the early going, which should create opportunities for the calmer, steadier horses to seize the moment late.
That script worked magically for Monarchos in 2001, when Congaree and the favored Point Given, a Baffert horse, had nothing left to give down the stretch.
Such a scenario seemingly would set things up nicely for Bob and John, who doesn't need to be in the lead from the get-go to keep his spirits high. He cemented his reputation as a can-do colt in the Wood Memorial, although some questioned his pedestrian finish there after he built a comfortable lead.
Not Baffert, though.
"He reminds me of Real Quiet," Baffert said, referring to the 1998 champion and his second Derby winner. "He enjoys chasing after something and having a target. He's a young colt (he doesn't turn 3 until May 17), a 'teenager' just now becoming a man. He has really changed and gotten with the program. He's come around at the right time."
Bob and John will start from the seventh spot, the perfect place — in theory — for him to begin his 1 1/4 -mile dash around horse racing's most fabled oval.
McNair likes his chances
"The best horse doesn't always win the Derby," McNair said, echoing Baffert's opinion. "There's so much luck involved. The horse that gets the best trip has the best chance, and we think Bob and John is well-positioned and well-suited for the race.
"If he breaks clean and doesn't get bumped off his stride, he'll be there all the way.
"He has a very solid foundation. He has run four or five races around two turns. A lot of the horses have done it just once."
A maxed-out field at the Derby can spook the best of 3-year-olds. That's the great unknown, as is the distance, the longest these colts have run. Barbaro, for example, never has had a blinding spray of dirt kicked into his face in any of his five victorious races. And Brother Derek had to outrun just four other horses in the Santa Anita Derby, a race that — boding badly for the wheelchair-confined Hendricks — hasn't produced a Kentucky Derby winner since 1989.
The wide factor
A further leveling factor might have been the post draw. Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron fared poorly in the lottery to determine the selection order and wound up way wide — 18th and 17th, respectively.
Rarely do Derby champions come from so far out.
Of course, neither horse's team is conceding anything.
"He has such a natural way of cruising, (such) a high cruising speed," said Alex Solis, Brother Derek's jockey, "that I'm just going to let him do whatever he wants and place himself where he's happy and comfortable."
As for Solis, his story also offers a poignant element, too. This will be his 15th Derby.
His record: 0-for-14.
